Where Next? With gold well into record territory, investor enthusiasm is boiling over.

There is a wide range of opinions on the outlook for metals, reflecting the uncertainty in nearly all of the variables that impact metal prices.

The sovereign debt and worries and fears of a double dip recession still cloud the outlook for some investors. Another round of quantitative easing will inject another $600 billion into the global money supply. The announcement of QE2 built confidence that the American economy will remain in positive territory. It also re-ignited inflation concerns, pushing gold to a further record high.

Investors were already buying gold for its safe-haven status. The gold market enjoyed a further boost as investors seek cover from looming inflation (read “currency devaluation”).

The high price of bullion has attracted a significant amount of media attention and drawn in a great many investors who might not otherwise be investing in gold. Many gold companies have followed gold higher: certainly, the big producers and the better-known among the developers and explorers have enjoyed big gains.

As the present gold rush is driven largely by investors seeking safety, the majors and the mid-tier producers trade at premium prices. An inordinately large discount is applied to the next level down. A development-stage gold company clearly carries more risk than an established producer. The flip side is that the developers and advanced explorers offer a great deal more upside. The higher potential rewards arise in part from the higher leverage to the gold price offered by the smaller companies. A second benefit is that select companies will appreciate in value as their projects evolve toward production.

Gold is capturing the headlines, but other aspects of the mining industry deserve a share of the attention. North American and European investors continue to shun the base metal juniors for fear of further economic slowdowns. Those investors seem to have missed copper’s stealth march toward its previous record highs. Tin is now at an all-time record high. Other metals have also moved higher. That strength in the base metal markets is being propelled by demand from the developing world. The Asian mining companies are scouring the planet in search of metal deposits on which to develop new mines. The takeover activity is set to accelerate and to become far more visible.

The United States government continues its efforts to push down the value of the dollar. On one level, a cheaper dollar would benefit American exporters. Secondly, devaluing the currency reduces the real value of the multi-trillion dollar debt owing to foreigners. Of course, downward pressure on the dollar is quickly matched by other nations seeking to keep their export industries competitive.

On any given day, pundits could put together a string of headlines to support a case for any direction for any of the metals. Instead of simply speculating on metal prices, investors can instead put their money into companies that are adding value for shareholders. The gains from successfully executing mineral development projects far exceed any realistic outlook for moves in metal prices.

Lawrence Roulston

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More Commentaries

2011 : Gold Forecast To Rise, Buyers Have Multiple Investment Options

The 2011 gold outlook from most analysts, simply put, is higher.

But for new investors wanting to join the gold rush, there is still some homework to do. They might want to familiarize themselves with the many ways in which they can invest--from coins to exchange-traded funds to mining stocks--to decide which are most suited for them.

Gold has been in a decade-long bull market, rising from roughly $250 an ounce to a recent record of $1,431. Many look for still more gains. BNP Paribas has forecast an average of $1,500 in 2011, while Goldman Sachs has a 12-month target of $1,690 (but also cautioned that gold could peak in 2012)

• A : January 8th, 2010

  1126.75 - January 8th, 2010 - Precious metals price action turned positive on this day in New York, following weaker dollar values in the wake of dismal employment data. The dollar appeared to be anticipating tomorrow's US payroll figures which are expected to show that the economy has shed jobs during every single month of 2008 and likely pushed unemployment to 7% for a 16-year high. Crude oil fell to under $42 per barrel on apprehensions generated by the employment situation and was only marginally supported by Russia's failure to come to terms with the Ukraine in the gas impasse.

• B :January 11th, 2010

  1153.00 - January 11th, 2010 - The U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, closing out the worst year for job losses since World War II, the Labor Department said this date. Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008, with 1.9 million destroyed in just the past four months, according to a survey of work places. It's the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945. The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years. Unemployment increased by 632,000 to 11.1 million, according to the survey of households.

• C : May 7th, 2010

  1202.25 - May 7th, 2010 - Gold prices hovered around the $1200 mark early this morning, as their after-hours rise to five-month highs above that round figure on the back of spreading fears about Greek contagion and the Dow's 'air pocket incident' prompted profit-takers to do just that. The U.S. economy added 290,000 jobs in April, the biggest gain in four years. However, the unemployment rate rose slightly, from 9.7% to 9.9%. This is mostly due to people who had previously given up looking for work restarting their job search.

• D : May 7th, 2010

  1202.25 - May 7th, 2010 - Gold prices hovered around the $1200 mark early this morning, as their after-hours rise to five-month highs above that round figure on the back of spreading fears about Greek contagion and the Dow's 'air pocket incident' prompted profit-takers to do just that. The U.S. economy added 290,000 jobs in April, the biggest gain in four years. However, the unemployment rate rose slightly, from 9.7% to 9.9%. This is mostly due to people who had previously given up looking for work restarting their job search.

• E : November 4th, 2010

  1381.00 - November 4th, 2010 - As was largely expected the GOP took control of the US House of Representatives and gained Senate seats as well. Gold futures at one point rocketed ahead by nearly $60 an ounce this day compared to their low from the previous afternoon, when the market was initially choppy in the wake of a Federal Open Market Committee announcement of another $600 billion in quantitative easing.

• F : November 9th, 2010

  1421.00 - November 9th, 2010 - Commodity markets were on fire early this day, led by surging precious metals prices that saw gold futures hit a fresh record high and silver futures hit a fresh 30-year high. Gold's surge in price continued from the mid-term election and QE2 announcement on November 4.

• G : November 25th, 2010

  1373.25 - November 25th, 2010 - South Korea deployed additional long-range artillery missiles on a border island and vowed to make North Korea “pay the price” for its first direct assault on the country since 1953. Although an armistice has been in place since that time, the two Koreas are still technically at war with each other. A top Chinese emissary met with President Lee on Sunday, after China called for a multilateral emergency meeting aimed at defusing the aggravating crisis.

• H : December 6th, 2010

  1415.25 - December 6th, 2010 - China and its anti-inflation/anti-bubble combat took centre stage in the market news flows once again on this date, as its People's Bank announced a half percent hike in reserve requirements (to 18%) for the country's banks. The move represented the sixth such tightening this year. Polled analysts believe that inflation may have risen further, possibly to as high a level as 4.6%, and that the PBOC might raise interest rates even as soon as Sunday if it feels that the inflation dragon is growing yet another unwelcome head and getting ready for a menacing flight.

Source : Kitco News

The Fed's gold problem

By Paul R. La Monica, editor at largeSeptember 21, 2010: 9:04 AM ET

The Buzz is now on Twitter! Follow me @LaMonicaBuzz

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- When the Federal Reserve's policy-making committee meets Tuesday, there will be no mystery as to what they will do. Nothing.

But what will the Fed say? That's where things get interesting.

Click the chart to keep track of other rising commodity prices

In the past few weeks, fears of a double-dip recession have ebbed. August retail sales were better than expected. The number of people filing for unemployment claims has fallen for two weeks in a row.

The trade deficit for July was much narrower than forecasts. That's crucial since a ballooning trade gap in June was the primary reason why the nation's gross domestic product in the second quarter was revised lower.

Still, the economy is not healthy. The latest bits of manufacturing data have been disappointing. The housing market may not have hit bottom yet. Builder Beazer Homes USA (BZH) lowered its forecast for new home orders on Wednesday.

And even with jobless claims falling, companies don't seem to be comfortable enough to start hiring again. Some are still getting rid of workers. FedEx (FDX, Fortune 500) said Thursday it was cutting 1,700 jobs.

For these reasons, the Fed is likely to stress -- as it has since March 2009 -- that it expects to keep interest rates "exceptionally low" for "an extended period of time." (Rates have been near 0% since December 2008.)

It may also talk more about its commitment to purchase long-term bonds as it sees fit. In its last meeting, the Fed said it would reinvest the principal from mortgage-backed securities it holds into long-term Treasurys.

But it stopped short of announcing a new plan to buy bonds, a practice known as quantitative easing.

0:00 /5:36Double-dip or just slow growth

David Joy, chief market strategist with Columbia Management in Boston, said the economy doesn't appear to be so weak that the Fed should step up its bond buying yet. But it can't afford to be complacent either.

"The message we are left with from all the recent data is that this is a sluggish recovery," Joy said. "The Fed may feel a little better about the economy since they last met in August -- but not much."

But if the economy takes a sudden turn for the worse again -- Jon Stewart recently joked that "the 'Summer of Recovery' is quickly sliding into the 'Autumn of Nothing but Ramen Noodles For Dinner,' " -- then the Fed will have to give specifics about its plans to buy more bonds.

"The Fed may have to be aggressive," said Anthony Valeri, market strategist with LPL Financial in San Diego. "What people are looking for is a dollar amount. It could be $500 billion to $1 trillion."

Valeri doubted the Fed would make such an announcement on Tuesday but said it was possible it would unveil more concrete plans at its November 3 meeting.

Still, some think the Fed may have to think more about pulling back on its easy money policies. That's because there are still niggling worries about inflation.

Yes, inflation.

Deflation may be the big buzz word as economists fret about whether the United States is heading for its own version of Japan's Lost Decade during the 1990's.

Goldman Sachs expects more Fed easing

But have you looked at what commodity prices are doing? The Fed may soon need to start worrying about that dreaded 1970's throwback of stagflation: the combination of anemic growth and rising prices.

Gold is hitting record highs. Agricultural commodities are soaring and in some cases, such as bacon and coffee, producers are passing higher costs onto consumers. And the dollar has been on a downward slide against the yen and euro.

While it would be foolish to suggest that the spike in commodities is entirely the Fed's fault, it is fair to say the central bank's more pessimistic take on the economy sparked worries that the Fed will be too slow to react to pricing pressures.

"The Fed may have jumped the gun last time and created the fear that things are worse then they actually believed," said Milton Ezrati, senior economist with Lord Abbett, an investment firm in Jersey City, N.J.

Ezrati said the increase in commodity prices is evidence that deflation and double-dip talk may be overblown. Along those lines, the latest figures on inflation on a wholesale level, the producer price index, rose more than expected in August. Consumer prices also were up a bit more than forecasts in August.

And even though the so-called core PPI number, which excludes food and energy costs, was in line with forecasts, the myopic focus on that number is sometimes silly.

People have to eat and drive. If fuel and food costs keep going up, try telling consumers they need to worry about deflation.

"You would think the Fed should mention the risk that commodity prices could go higher," said Andrew Busch, global currency and public policy strategist with BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "The Fed needs to discuss the potential for inflation for the long term."

- The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent of CNNMoney.com, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not own positions in any individual stocks.

Gold edges up to a new record

Click chart for more commodities prices. By Aaron Smith, staff writerSeptember 20, 2010: 2:31 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Gold continues to break records, hitting its fourth new high in a week Monday, fueled by economic jitters.

Gold futures for December delivery closed at $1,280.80 an ounce, up $3.30, or about 0.3%. That breaks the record close that was set on Sept. 17, when prices rose $3.70 to settle at $1,277.50 an ounce.

Gold futures for December delivery reached an intraday record that was even higher, at $1,285.20 per ounce. The prior intraday record was $1,284.40 an ounce, on Sept. 17.

Gold prices have been riding a wave of economic uncertainty. Jono Remington-Hobbs, a precious metals analyst for the TheBullionDesk in London, said the big drivers are economic uncertainty, volatility in the currency markets and the possibility of more quantitative easing -- meaning the buying of bonds by the U.S. government.

Despite the announcement by the National Bureau of Economic Research that the recession ended in June 2009, Remington-Hobbs said he believes that uncertainty will continue to drive gold prices.

"I think there's a strong chance that gold will get close to touching $1,300 [per ounce] in the next month or two, actually," he said.

Gold prices have climbed 26% over the last 12 months. But in actuality, prices are a far cry from their true record, when adjusted for inflation.

Gold hit its true peak on Jan. 21, 1980, when it rose to $825.50 an ounce. Adjusted for inflation, that translates to an all-time record of $2,184.08 an ounce, in 2010 dollars.

Gold hits 3-month low on economic uncertainties

Frank Tang and Jan Harvey

Fri Feb 5, 2010 3:17pm EST

An employee takes gold ingots to be weighed in a room for final weighing and packaging at the Krastsvetmet plant in the Siberian city of Krasnoyarsk November 16, 2009.

Credit: Reuters/Ilya Naymushin

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) - Gold fell to its lowest in more than three months on Friday, ending the week 2 percent lower, as economic uncertainties led to heavy selling in gold and other investments perceived as riskier.

Bullion dropped further after posting its biggest one-day loss since 2008 on Thursday, hit by sovereign debt fears in Europe, and signs that economic recovery in United States and China has hit a rough patch.

On charts, gold is vulnerable to extending sharp losses to reach $1,020-1,030 an ounce if support at current levels fails to hold, and may face a deeper retracement below $1,000 if it breaks that level, technical analysts said.

The metal, however, could see support in the near term as investors bid up COMEX gold call options and gold miners' stock prices, floor traders and fund managers said.

"Investors are looking to some large-cap gold stocks as a way to hedge currency unrest and potential debt default in Europe," said Brian Hicks, co-manager of Global Resources Fund at U.S. Global Investors, which has over $2 billion in mutual fund assets.

Shares of the world's largest gold producer Barrick Gold (ABX.TO) and No. 2 Newmont Mining (NEM.N) are about 4 percent higher despite weaker gold prices and broad-based equities weakness.

Spot gold fell to a low of $1,043.75, and was last at $1,062.25 an ounce at 2:38 p.m. EST, against $1,062.60 late in New York on Thursday.

Spot bullion is about 2 percent lower from last Friday's close at $1,081.05 an ounce.

U.S. gold futures for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled down $10.20 at $1,052.80 an ounce.

Gold is extending losses after prices fell 4 percent on Thursday after European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet predicted rising fiscal imbalances over the euro zone economy, and that knocked the euro.

The euro fell to its lowest level against the dollar since May on rising risk aversion, as the cost of insuring the debt of some euro zone nations against default hit record highs on worries over their fiscal positions.

CRUDE PLUNGES, ETF REPORTS OUTFLOWS

Oil prices briefly tumbled below $70 a barrel, as the stronger dollar and data showing additional U.S. job cuts weighed on the market.

Earlier on Friday, U.S. data showed that nonfarm payrolls fell unexpectedly in January, but unemployment rate surprisingly dropped to a five-month low.

"Gold is going to show higher volatility until there is more of a trend established in U.S. economic recovery," said Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager of Midas Fund. MIDSX.O

Investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds was lackluster, with holdings of the world's biggest, New York's SPDR Gold Trust falling 5.8 tonnes or 0.5 percent on Thursday.

Silver also tumbled to its lowest since early September at $14.63, tracking losses in gold. It was later at $14.91 an ounce versus $15.23.

Platinum and palladium also hit 2010 lows at $1,444 an ounce and $379.50 an ounce respectively. Platinum was later at $1,471 an ounce versus $1,499.50, while palladium was at $394.50 against $406.50.

(Reporting by Frank Tang and Jan Harvey; Editing by Marguerita Choy)

Silver in the Spotlight

by Dennis Cajigas

Gold has been in the spotlight, but silver has been a hidden bull, and I expect it to rally for several reasons. Traders who are leery of buying gold at record-high prices might consider a silver play.

Dollar Weakness

Silver should find strength from expected continued weakness in the U.S. dollar. Commodities saw a broad-based rally on Monday, November 9, after the weekend G-20 meeting, where finance ministers agreed to continue global economic stimulus measures. The dollar weakened after the meeting and many commodities surged, including grains, energies and metals, as well as the stock market. The U.S. Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged at last week’s policy meeting, and rates look to remain near zero for some time. Therefore, I don’t see the dollar’s trend changing much anytime soon either.

There has been a fairly strong inverse relationship between the U.S. dollar and commodities. U.S. dollar-denominated commodities have been strengthening, as a cheaper U.S. dollar means cheaper prices for countries looking to import goods.

We have also been hearing rumblings of central banks trying to diversify away from the U.S. dollar and buying gold, and also perhaps a currency basket. While that trend could take some time on a large scale to occur, it would likely exacerbate dollar weakness, and silver and gold should both benefit.

Silver should follow rallies in other precious metals, including platinum and palladium, as these metals also benefit from increased industrial demand, both real and anticipated, as we exit of the recession.

Funds Net Long

Looking at the latest weekly data in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s Commitments of Traders report, fund buying and non-reportable (small speculators) were net long about a combined 64,800 silver contracts. Even though there is weakness in the economy (notably the employment situation) there is fund interest in commodities. Investors are interested in hard assets. Several funds have also been looking to rebalance some of their portfolios in compliance with CFTC regulationsI expect to see broader and deeper positions, perhaps moving out of gold and into other metals such as silver, which should benefit from this process.

Gold has hit a new record-high above $1,100 an ounce, but silver has been lagging. I expect silver may play some catch-up over the next few weeks or months, and should post even greater gains on a percentage basis than gold. Silver has not able to break through last month’s high, but I believe that should happen fairly soon.

Metal Ratios

Anticipated inflation should also prove a driver for metals prices in general, as a hedge. The monetary and non-monetary metal ratios (between silver and gold) are important to note. The historical peg for the monetary ratio of these metals is about 15-to-1. That means about 15 ½ ounces in silver is typically required to buy an ounce of gold. Currently, this ratio is at 63-to-1, or 63 ounces of silver are required to buy an ounce of gold. If this relationship reverts to historical norms, silver should rally significantly higher to catch up.

The non-monetary metal ratio on COMEX silver to gold contracts is 7-to-1. That means 7 contracts in silver are required to equal one gold contract. That effectively means that if gold moves to $1,200 (a move of $100), we should see silver at least $2 an ounce higher, with an objective of $19 in the medium-term.

Trading Silver with Moving Averages

The daily chart of the March COMEX silver contract shows the 50-day moving average in blue. We can see how the market has bounced off these supports. The 200-day moving average is in green. This chart shows an increase between the 50- and 200-day moving averages. There is an increase in the distance between these moving averages, indicating an increase in momentum, and in new buying coming in. The 50-day moving average is reacting and increasing its slope more so than the 200-day moving average. The differential suggests increasing strength and increasing buying. We haven’t broken resistance at $18, but if this trend continues, I expect a breakout in the next few days. The 50-day moving average, near $16.92, is holding as support and looks like a great place to establish a long position.

Looking at a weekly chart, we can see the uptrend extending from 2008. The 50-day moving average is showing strong buying coming in, and the 200-week average shows a smoother line. Similar strong support is seen near $17 on the weekly chart also. A $2 move in silver would give a target of $19.50, also a strong resistance level. If gold really does take off, I would expect even higher prices ahead for silver.

Please contact me to develop a customized strategy to fit your unique situation. I’d be happy to take your questions about this or other markets.

Dennis Cajigas is a Senior Market Strategist with Lind Plus, Lind-Waldock’s broker-assisted division. He can be reached at 866-631-6216 or via email at dcajigas@lind-waldock.com
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Gold Investment being driven by economic fears, says analyst - 05/09/2009

The editor of a well-respected precious metals newsletter claimed yesterday (September 3rd) that investors are rushing to Buy Gold for its safe-haven status.

James di Georgia, who produces Gold and Energy Advisor, is an experienced gold analyst whose views are often quoted in leading publications such as the New York Times and USA Today.

He explained in an interview with cnbc.com that concerns over the massive US spending during the recession are persisting and will eventually see Gold Prices increase to about $1,200 per ounce.

"When you have such a large part of US population convinced we're running to hell in a handbasket with federal spending, you're going to have a large part of the population buying and taking possession of gold out of fear of what's going on," he told the news provider.

Investors also turn to gold when supplies of the yellow metal are diminishing as this naturally tends to increase demand and therefore push prices higher.

Last week, Harmony Gold, which is the world's fifth-largest gold producer, suspended operations at its Doornkop mine in South Africa after a worker died in an accident involving a conveyor belt.
When incidents of this nature force the closure of mines, production is inevitably impacted.

| Goldbug | goldnews.bullionvault.com | 05-09-2009 |